The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that there will be a slight delay in the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala this year. Typically, the monsoon arrives over Kerala on June 1, with a standard deviation of approximately 7 days. However, this year, the monsoon is predicted to make its appearance on June 4, with a model error of 4 days.
Last year, the monsoon arrived in the southern state on May 29, while in 2021 it arrived on June 3, and on June 1 in 2020. The onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala serves as an essential indicator of the transition from the hot and dry season to the rainy season on the Indian mainland.
Despite evolving El Nino conditions, the IMD stated last month that India is expected to receive normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season. This forecast brings relief to rainfed agriculture, which plays a critical role in India’s agricultural landscape. Approximately 52 percent of the net cultivated area in the country relies on rainfed agriculture, which contributes to around 40 percent of India’s total food production. As a result, it is a crucial factor in ensuring food security and economic stability in the nation.
The delay in the onset of the southwest monsoon may have implications for farmers and agricultural activities in the region. Timely arrival of the monsoon is vital for crop planting and growth, as it replenishes water reservoirs and sustains irrigation systems. Any delay in the monsoon’s arrival could impact agricultural schedules and necessitate adjustments in farming practices.
While the delay is relatively minor, it serves as a reminder of the importance of accurate weather forecasting and its impact on various sectors of the economy. The IMD’s predictions play a crucial role in helping farmers, policymakers, and other stakeholders make informed decisions regarding agricultural practices, water resource management, and disaster preparedness.
As the monsoon season approaches, all eyes will be on Kerala, eagerly awaiting the arrival of the southwest monsoon and the subsequent relief it brings to the parched lands. The resilience of India’s rainfed agriculture system will once again be tested, highlighting the significance of sustainable farming practices and effective water management in ensuring the nation’s food security.