China’s ambitious plans to build the world’s largest dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River near its border with India have sparked concerns about geopolitical, environmental, and water security issues. The proposed dam, set to be located in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), is part of Beijing’s aggressive push to harness hydropower. While China sees this project as a step toward achieving its renewable energy goals, India views it with caution, considering the potential downstream impact on water flow and ecology in the northeastern region.
As India keeps a close eye on developments, the project underscores the growing importance of water as a strategic resource in South Asia, where transboundary rivers have long been a source of both cooperation and conflict.
The World’s Largest Dam: China’s Ambitious Plan
The proposed dam is set to dwarf all existing hydropower projects, with a planned capacity of over 60 gigawatts (GW). It will be constructed at the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, which flows from Tibet into India, where it is known as the Brahmaputra. The location is strategically significant, given its proximity to India’s northeastern states, including Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as its territory.
China has touted the project as a crucial part of its strategy to meet carbon neutrality targets by 2060. Hydropower is a central component of Beijing’s renewable energy plans, and this dam, if completed, will play a key role in boosting China’s energy output.
However, the sheer scale of the project has raised alarms globally. It is expected to surpass the Three Gorges Dam, currently the largest hydropower project in the world, also located in China. Environmentalists and neighboring countries are concerned about the dam’s potential to disrupt ecosystems, affect riverine communities, and alter water availability downstream.
India’s Concerns: Water Security and Geopolitical Implications
India has responded cautiously to China’s plans, adopting a “wait-and-watch” approach. The Yarlung Tsangpo/Brahmaputra is one of India’s major rivers, supporting millions of people across the northeastern states and contributing significantly to agriculture, fisheries, and livelihoods. Any alterations to the river’s flow could have a profound impact on India’s water security.
The construction of such a massive dam raises several key concerns for India:
- Control Over Water Flow: India fears that China could manipulate the river’s flow, potentially reducing water availability during dry seasons or releasing excessive water during monsoons, leading to flooding in downstream regions.
- Environmental Impact: The dam’s construction could have cascading effects on the fragile Himalayan ecosystem, including disruptions to sediment flow and loss of biodiversity. This could exacerbate the already vulnerable environmental conditions in India’s northeastern states.
- Geopolitical Tensions: The location of the dam near the disputed border heightens strategic concerns for India. The project could become another flashpoint in the already tense India-China relations, which have been strained since the Galwan Valley clash in 2020.
India’s Strategy: Diplomacy and Development
While India has not yet taken an official position opposing the project, it has been actively monitoring developments and exploring its own strategies to counterbalance China’s plans. These include:
- Hydropower Projects on Brahmaputra: India has expedited its hydropower projects in Arunachal Pradesh to assert control over the river within its territory. This move also aims to offset potential disruptions from Chinese activities upstream.
- Diplomatic Engagement: India is expected to engage with China diplomatically, emphasizing the need for transparency and cooperation in transboundary river management. India has also been advocating for a multilateral framework involving all South Asian nations sharing river systems with China.
- Regional Alliances: India may strengthen ties with countries like Bhutan and Bangladesh, which are also impacted by rivers originating in Tibet, to build a regional coalition focused on equitable water-sharing agreements.
Environmental and Global Concerns
Beyond India and China, the dam has drawn international criticism from environmental groups and researchers. The scale of the project poses significant risks to the fragile Himalayan ecology, including glacial retreat, landslides, and seismic activity in the region. Critics argue that the potential environmental costs outweigh the benefits of increased hydropower capacity.
Moreover, China’s reluctance to share detailed plans or engage in water-sharing agreements with downstream countries like India and Bangladesh has deepened mistrust. The lack of a binding international framework for managing transboundary rivers adds to the complexity of the situation.
Conclusion: A Test of Diplomacy and Resilience
China’s plan to construct the world’s largest dam near the India border is emblematic of the broader geopolitical competition in the region. While China frames the project as a necessary step for renewable energy development, its implications for downstream countries like India are far-reaching.
For India, the challenge lies in balancing diplomatic engagement with assertive measures to safeguard its water security and ecological interests. The Yarlung Tsangpo/Brahmaputra has long been a lifeline for millions, and any disruptions could have severe consequences. As India continues to monitor the situation, the project underscores the growing importance of water as a geopolitical resource in an era of climate change and regional rivalries.