Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in the spread of vector-borne and infectious diseases in India due to variations in temperature and moisture. Scientists have noted that steadily rising temperatures can affect the transmission potential of viruses and their vectors through changes in the incubation period and duration of transmission. Furthermore, changes in climate can introduce new vectors to areas, making some species more susceptible to new viruses that may transmit to humans.
A collaborative research effort called the CHARISMa project aims to demonstrate the links between changing climate conditions and patterns of vector-borne diseases like dengue and malaria. Researchers have suggested that modelling future scenarios using state-of-the-art techniques can be a useful tool to aid decision-makers in planning suitable and timely interventions.
A study published in the journal Nature predicted that climate change will vastly increase the risk of new viruses infecting humans. Currently, there are at least 10,000 viruses “circulating silently” among wild mammals, and climate change may trigger them to cross over into humans. This finding holds particularly true for countries such as India, Indonesia, China and the Philippines, and some African regions that have been hotspots for deadly diseases spread from animals to humans over the last several decades.
While there are several perspective research papers on the risks between climate change and disease risk in India, much of the primary literature with robust scientific studies is still from the global north. However, scientists believe that the rise in cases of respiratory viruses in India due to climate change is possible and requires scientific research to establish a clear link. Human behavioural and demographic change, such as increased use of air conditioning, changed crop cycles, and mass migration, can also change the epidemiology of viruses.