In recent weeks, there have been swirling rumors about an Iranian plan to “eliminate” former U.S. President Donald Trump before the upcoming U.S. election day. These speculations, which have gained traction in certain media outlets and among political commentators, stem from historical tensions between the two nations, particularly following the 2020 assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani. While such claims may evoke a sense of geopolitical intrigue and danger, it’s important to separate fact from fiction when considering the potential for a state-backed assassination of a prominent American political figure.
Origins of the Speculation
The origins of this narrative can be traced back to ongoing threats from Iranian officials in retaliation for the killing of Soleimani, who was targeted in a U.S. drone strike ordered by Trump in January 2020. Soleimani, a key military leader in Iran, was instrumental in Iran’s regional military strategy and power projection, especially through proxy groups across the Middle East. His death marked a major escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions, and Iran has since vowed revenge, with leaders such as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei explicitly warning of retaliation against those responsible.
In August 2023, some media reports began to resurface comments from Iranian officials suggesting that retribution for Soleimani’s death was still very much on the table. This, combined with Trump’s re-entry into U.S. political life as a contender for the 2024 presidential election, has fueled speculation that Iran may try to take a more drastic approach—such as targeting Trump directly.
Diplomatic History and Context
To understand these rumors, it’s important to contextualize the fraught relationship between the U.S. and Iran, particularly under Trump’s presidency. When Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) in 2018 and reimposed heavy sanctions on Tehran, the already fragile diplomatic ties between the two countries shattered. Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign sought to economically and politically isolate Iran, leading to increased animosity.
The killing of Soleimani was a peak moment in this conflict. In the eyes of Iran’s leadership, Soleimani was a martyr who died defending the country’s interests, and his assassination was viewed as an affront to Iran’s sovereignty. Since then, Iranian officials have vowed to avenge his death, though their rhetoric has largely remained symbolic, emphasizing long-term, strategic retaliation.
Analyzing the Plausibility
While Iranian officials have occasionally issued threats directed at Trump, it is highly unlikely that Tehran would pursue a direct assassination plot against a former U.S. president, particularly in the lead-up to an American election. Such an action would carry enormous risks for Iran, not only in terms of provoking a severe military response from the U.S. but also by further isolating the country diplomatically. Any credible attempt to assassinate a U.S. political figure could lead to widespread condemnation and possibly even united international sanctions.
Moreover, the Iranian government has historically opted for indirect, asymmetrical forms of warfare, such as supporting proxy groups in the region rather than engaging in direct confrontations with powerful adversaries like the United States. Even the retaliation for Soleimani’s death, which involved missile strikes on U.S. bases in Iraq, was limited and designed to avoid further escalation.
Iran’s internal political landscape also plays a role in its strategy. As Iran grapples with economic difficulties, protests, and other domestic issues, a risky foreign operation such as assassinating Trump could destabilize its already precarious situation.
Media Sensationalism and Misinformation
It is crucial to recognize the role of sensationalist media in amplifying stories like these. Rumors about assassination plots and secret retaliatory plans have long been a staple of political intrigue, particularly when it comes to U.S.-Iran relations. Speculative headlines about Iran’s intentions may be designed to attract readers and stoke fear, but they often lack substantive evidence.
For instance, while Iranian officials have reiterated their desire for “revenge,” they have not made any concrete threats against Trump specifically, nor has there been any verified intelligence suggesting such a plan is in motion. U.S. intelligence agencies and security experts have been monitoring threats against high-profile political figures for decades, and there has been no public indication of an imminent assassination plot from Iran targeting Trump.
While there is no doubt that Iran still seeks to avenge Soleimani’s death, the idea that Tehran is actively plotting to “eliminate” Donald Trump before the 2024 election day appears to be more rooted in speculative fear than in factual evidence. The possibility of such a plot remains highly unlikely given the enormous risks involved for Iran. Geopolitical tensions and rhetoric may continue, but a direct assassination of a former U.S. president would represent an unprecedented and reckless move on the part of Iran—one that could have catastrophic consequences.
In the age of heightened political tensions and media sensationalism, it is essential to approach such claims with skepticism and rely on verified information from credible sources. The true focus should remain on diplomacy, stability, and the mitigation of further conflict between these two long-estranged nations.