Nagaon bypoll has emerged as a major political test for the BJP in Assam, with Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma saying a victory could indicate that the party is capable of winning all 126 Assembly seats in the 2031 state elections. His remarks have raised the stakes around the October 6 Lok Sabha by-election, which is being closely watched for clues about Assam’s changing political landscape.
Sarma acknowledged that Nagaon has traditionally been a Congress stronghold and is not a conventional BJP seat. However, he said the ruling party had noticed a shift in voter sentiment towards the BJP over the past month. According to the chief minister, a BJP victory in the constituency would send a strong political signal ahead of the next Assembly election.
Nagaon bypoll becomes BJP’s political benchmark
The chief minister’s prediction puts the Nagaon contest beyond the immediate Lok Sabha by-election. Sarma has linked the result to the BJP’s broader organisational and electoral ambitions in Assam.
“If BJP wins the Nagaon bypoll, then in the next Assembly election we will win 126 seats,” Sarma said.
The statement is significant because the Assam Assembly has 126 seats. The BJP-led alliance secured 102 seats in the 2026 Assembly elections, giving the ruling coalition a strong mandate. A complete sweep in 2031 would therefore represent a substantial expansion of its electoral reach.
At the same time, Sarma’s comments recognise the difficulty of the immediate challenge. Nagaon has historically favoured the Congress, making a BJP victory particularly important for the ruling party’s narrative of expanding its support base.
BJP fields former IAS officer Devasish Sharma
The BJP has nominated former IAS officer Devasish Sharma for the Nagaon bypoll. Sharma recently took voluntary retirement from government service after serving as Nagaon deputy commissioner and subsequently joined the BJP. The party formally approved his candidature earlier this month.
The constituency became vacant after former Congress MP Pradyut Bordoloi resigned from the party and joined the BJP ahead of the 2026 Assam Assembly elections. Bordoloi later contested from the Dispur Assembly constituency on a BJP ticket and won.
Sharma’s candidature has also triggered political controversy. Congress leaders have questioned the circumstances surrounding his transition from administration to electoral politics, while the BJP has projected him as an experienced and locally known candidate.
Congress picks Sibamoni Bora
Congress has responded by fielding former Batadroba MLA Sibamoni Bora. The party announced her candidature on September 14, with voting scheduled for October 6 and counting on October 9.
Bora has already expressed confidence that Congress can retain the seat. Her selection is aimed at strengthening the party’s traditional support base in a constituency where it has historically remained competitive.
Congress leaders have also accused the BJP of attempting to divide opposition votes by encouraging an AIUDF presence in the election. The allegations have been rejected by the BJP, while the evolving contest has added another layer to the campaign.
AIUDF enters the contest
AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal on September 15 announced that he would contest the Nagaon bypoll, setting up a three-way contest involving the BJP, Congress and AIUDF. The development came just before the nomination process begins on September 16.
The Trinamool Congress has also fielded Abdul Salam, adding another candidate to an increasingly crowded opposition field. Meanwhile, Raijor Dal leader Akhil Gogoi has announced that his party will not contest the seat, saying the decision is intended to prevent a split in the anti-BJP vote.
The developments have made the election particularly important because the distribution of votes among Congress, AIUDF and other opposition candidates could have a direct impact on the final outcome.
A test of BJP’s wider Assam strategy
For the BJP, the Nagaon bypoll is therefore both an immediate electoral battle and a test of its wider political strategy. A win would allow the party to claim that its support has expanded into a constituency historically associated with Congress.
For the Opposition, defeating the BJP would provide evidence that the ruling party remains vulnerable in key constituencies despite its strong 2026 Assembly performance. The result could also influence political calculations well before the 2031 Assembly election.
With nominations set to begin and campaigning expected to intensify, Nagaon is likely to remain at the centre of Assam’s political debate. Sarma’s ambitious 126-seat prediction has given the contest added significance, turning an upcoming Lok Sabha bypoll into an early indicator of how both the BJP and its rivals may approach the next phase of Assam politics.
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